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Showing posts with label stock Exchange. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock Exchange. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Rishta Exchange: Monetary Brilliance



I think I've spent atleast several hundred thousand hours of my time abroad explaining the concept of 'Rishta' or arranged marriages. So I'm quite well versed in talking about things that make me inherently uncomfortable. 

Imagine this with conversation with your room mate: 
Me: 'No we don't buy our women.....unless you are Saudi and have to give Mehr...but that's not really buying...more like a token of appreciation without which a marriage would not occur, in Pakistan you actually get jahez/dowry'
Friend: 'So you get paid to get married....are the girls that butt ugly.'
Me: 'No, but the furniture you get as dowry usually is, think of it as a garage sale turned donation....only with jewelry, clothes, money, furniture.' 
Friend: Bro, I want to be Pakistani now, it sounds awesome, and you can marry 4 times.....wtf, it's like Christmas....but you get laid...and have better shot at an orgy.  

Rishta's is that proposal that puts the arranged marriage together. So it's basically the day your family points at a girl and says go marry her. In fact, they've already printed up the cards for the wedding, we've cleared the holiday time with your boss, just show up & don't be too wasted and isn't it nice how you are going to the Maldives for your honey moon? 

So, us brown folk have all seen how Rishta's work. A rishta comes, it goes, or it stays. We've (well me anyway) all read with assorted levels of amusement, the matrimonial section in the classified advertisement pages. So we know what goes into the making of a good rishta. I think we ought to professionalize it....stock market style. So here's what I propose (all puns and moral depravity intended).



A Rishta exchange, ala the stock exchange, where you can buy and sell shares in a Rishta. Anyone confused? No worries, I shall elaborate, elucidate and enthrall. And no, I am not talking about pimping (though such exchange would make sense).

Basically, A Rishta will become a commodity bond (which it is to a certain extent). Just like with bonds of publicly traded companies you can buy shares in publicly traded rishta's. Of course, a rishta is only a rishta for so long right? So each rishta will have to have a bond like maturity. The maturity being of course marriage. Of course, it doesn't have to end there, we could go into marriages as well, but thats diversification. Lets just focus on rishta's.



Since rishta's mature, they won't have pure ordinary shares like companies do. So they'll sort of be somewhere between bonds and shares. No, not like preferred shares or debentures or whatever else. These will be special rishta shares. They'll work like this:
Say a boy or a girl is born (holla!). We'll go with the boy first, since different things affect the prices of boys rishta's and girls rishta's:

So the boy is born, and after the birth, initial cuddling, naming, pooping and talk about how cute the kid's feet are, there'll be an IPO for the boys rishta. At this point the price will be determined by the parents status. For example if they're big land owners then the rishta's value is naturally higher. If they're big industrialists the value is higher. Etcetera. Now as time goes by the rishta will trade fairly evenly to start with. Changes in the parents status and in the child's surroundings will affect the rishta's value, but nothing the child does initially will really affect the rishta, unless it comes to light that the child has sadistic tendencies or is insane, or some assorted mental or physical deficiency or perhaps he's a little Mozart with the sitar. Anyway the boys own voluntary actions start affecting the rishta later. So if the boy gets into drugs, the value of the rishta will drop. I'm sorry, but this is a fact. A drug addled boy will lower his rishta value. And if the boy is gay....well, then the share price will drop exponentially till he can be 'cured' from the ailment.



So a whole range of socio-economic factors will play into the boys rishta's value. Now, boys tend to have longer maturities than girls. This is not true across the board, but true enough that we can generalize. A boy's rishta tenure lasts from birth till after 25 in most cases. A girls would be generally less than 25. This is not laid in stone of course, and the tenure is subject to fluctuation, which will make valuations harder of course, but thats where the risk comes in. And of course inherent risk is always there, the rishta bearer may die. But hey, a company could spontaneously combust as well. So yeah inherent risk is of course the major Hand. but that's life. You could die too. So yeah moving along...

So the boy gets a green card = rishta value goes up, the boy breaks a leg juggling armadillo's with his feet = rishta value goes down. The boy is a doctor = rishta value goes up, the boy is a sweeper= rishta value goes down.

If a boys parents are major landowners and their political affiliations work out for the better, that is their party comes into power = rishta value goes up, and conversely it goes down. Though not too drastically, a land owner's kids rishta is a fairly safe bet.



If the boy has a rape case against him, thats a different story.

So anyway, the maturity date becomes more concrete when the boy gets baat pakki-o-fied. The rishta now ceases to trade like a share, and becomes a full fledged bond in nature. of course, it can always revert if the engagement is broken, but then the rishta value drops rather significantly. Once the nikkah happens, the rishta ceases and the owners get a payout from the jahez.

Now onto the Girls:
So a girls IPO differs only slightly from the boys, in that theres no khatna. Of course the perceived tenure for a girls rishta is shorter. Anyway, they trade in a similar mien. The parents Socio-economic classification is a major determinant of the rishta's intial value, and how it trades in the early years. Of course, education and other things come into play. The girls reputation of course bears more heavily on the rishta's value than the boys, due to of course the dual moralities prevalent in our society.



So, the girl moves on in the world, and of course the same factors dealing with the girls physical and mental state play into the rishta value. However the voluntary actions of the girls weigh heavily on the girls rishta's value. If the girl is into drugs, the value of the rishta fall a little more steeply than the boys. If the girl drinks, the value plummets (we are assuming perfect free markets where there are no closet drinkers). This is because a girl who is intoxicated can be taken advantage of by boys, whereas a boy who is intoxicated is less likely to be taken advantage of by girls (that poor tied up waiter not withstanding) or by boys (albeit the ones who deny being gay) for that matter. Needless to say the hotter the girl the more likely is her value to increase and this can be fore casted based on her genes.



So intoxication of all sorts bear more heavily on the girls rishta value than boys with nasha's. Again, it's the dual morality and double standards prevalent in society... well actually, no, this is just more common sense. Its the same as saying a girl can write her name in snow as easily as boys. No, it doesn't work that way.
Now if a girl gets pregnant, thats a major problem. The rishta immediately ceases to trade, and the maturity date is decided suddenly. The rishta effectively becomes a junk bond. However fret not, you can actually get lucky in this case and make a killing (assuming that the girl isn't killed). If the girl is taken to wife by a wealthy old man, you can actually make out good. Of course this is rare, and extremely risky. High returns for abnormally high risk....



So a girl approaches her maturity, and then it works much the same way as with boys, except that the maturity period is shorter. The older a girl gets and remains unmarried, her rishta has been restructured as unsecured debt, though this could be good as her parents may be willing to take enormous amounts of loans to provide for a good dowry. So there is still potential in this distressed asset pricing model.

Traders will make a killing.....BUT ALL ASSETS WILL BE FAIRLY PRICED!!! In fact some issues value may be artificially revised due to plastic surgery, and this investment would make all commodities listed in the exchange appreciate in value plus we'd have alot more good looking people around....and who wouldn't want that? 

So I think I've made it somewhat clear, other factors that Ive either not thought of, or I've not bothered listing because well, this isn't a book or a thesis...though it should be, as it would have made much more interesting reading than my thesis. 

NOTE: Majority of this has unapologetically been stolen from Asmer. 

Saturday, January 9, 2010

A Day in the Life of an Economist/Research Analyst

I tend to field a lot of questions from people I know and don't know on what I exactly as an Economist/Research Analyst at a Mutual Fund in Pakistan. 

Inspired by the 'A day in the life of series' (I think the ones I've read so far are really boring) here is typically what a good day looks like. 

8:00 AM: Wake up, hit snooze, Go back to sleep. I don't have to be at work till 9 and my pillow and I are in the midst of an engaging conversation. 

8:20-9:00 AM: Bounce out of bed, quickly change, shower, shave and prepare for my day. Jump in my car and drive to work. Blissful if good music is on and annoying Radio Jockey's just shut up and play music.  

9:05 AM: Stroll into my office, working at a mutual fund in Pakistan is pretty chill, so people don't walk till 9:30-9:45 AM (Market opens at 9:30 AM) . I on the other hand have things to get done before the markets open.

9:05-9:40 AM: Get to work, I have to check various news sources, pulled out any relevant news pieces and figure out how the news will skew the market (Karachi Stock Exchange;KSE), if I'm well versed in the subject matter I'll have an idea on what impact it'll have on certain companies for eg. if Saudi Arabia lifts its embargo on regional exports for cements, that's probably bad news for Lucky Cement (symbol LUCK) as it relies on exports to distribute around half of its units produced. Saudi Producers are also highly subsidized in terms of energy costs, which Pakistani producers aren't. 

9:40 - 10:00 AM: Morning meeting with the investment team, listen closely to whats being said, I'll offer my input only if I know whats going on or if I have questions. Often the questions I'm asked to field are related to the Economy and what macro impacts certain policy changes will have. Dubai crisis, means bad news for the rates of our floating Euro Soveriegn Bonds. Jeez, no one wants to trust big governments anymore...what is the world coming too. 

10:00 AM-1:00 PM: Meeting is over, and I head back to my desk, I have a barrage of emails to deal with coupled with morning reports to go over. Since the dedicated research team consists of 3 people, we have to juggle multiple work flows that tend to overlap across sectors. So it's important to be as widely well versed as possible in virtually every sector. I'll also start making calls to other research analysts and brokers with queries (definitely the norm; you are alwayslearning something new) I'll have about certain points they've made in their reports or any contentious issue that arises that I need to understand. It's a pretty full morning, the highlight of which is when our resident Tea Distribution Manager/Chai Walla drops off a batch of sweet steaming tea in my personal over sized mug on my desk.....and then...he semi-bows. Which I'm yet to get over and it always puts a smile on my face. I also typically think about various potential investments we might be interested based on the news flows, assessing our exposures to market swings etc. 

1:00-1:45 PM: Get Lunch, the guys in the office usually go out and get lunch together, but depending on deadlines and just plain bad timing we'll peel off into groups. Working in the financial epicentre of Pakistan has its perks, for starters the food here is great (and cheap), whether you want Chinese, Pakistani, Iranian, Afghan or Western food, its all available. There is even Pizza Hut, Henny's, KFC and Subway nearby so its a pretty wide selection, but it depends on what your in the mood to eat. Most places will also deliver in case we are too lazy to leave the office or don't have the time. Healthy options are at a minimum and I don't think I've ever seen a place serve a real salad. 

1:45-4:00 PM: I usually spend this time working on my economy work flows; inflation projections, current account break ups, monthly economic reports, updating state bank data and at least a few times a week I'll call other Economists and get their views and get some feedback on ideas of my own. It's important to understand how people think than what they actually think (in fact what they think is usually irrelevant, for me its all in the thought process). Economists don't need to be accurate, though they need to be as close as possible. 

4:00-5:00 PM: We invite different research analysts to give presentations; its an opportunity for them to pitch us their ideas on certain companies and sectors (which we're considering taking a position in), if we like what they have to say we'll use them (usually) as our broker for the deal. 

5:00-7:00 PM: Wrap up any work flows, investment notes I have left to do, in some cases a late query will come in from the Investment side and I'll have to deal with them as quickly and accurately as I can. 

7:05: Head to the gym and then head home.